lundi 29 avril 2019
Épargnez ce petit-déj "gratuit" à vos enfants
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| http://h16free.com/2019/04/29/63539-youpi-un-petit-dej-et-de-la-propagande-gratuits?fbclid=IwAR19yh8C51vZ4F15raBDdBTktaN-lk_6sh3uqMIpOQl6a6Du2eyKa0iDoWE |
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| https://www.huffingtonpost.fr/2016/09/03/petit-dejeuner-enfants-adolescents-age_n_11796794.html |
C'est la responsabilité des parents de nourrir leurs enfants. Avec 759,5 milliards d'euros de dépenses sociales surtout qu'on ne me dise pas que c'est une question de manque de moyens ou d'argent. Choisir l'intérêt des enfants ce n'est pas déresponsabiliser les parents et leur permettre impunément de consommer tout sauf ce qui est utile à leurs enfants puisque "l'état le fera".
https://www.huffingtonpost.fr/2016/09/03/petit-dejeuner-enfants-adolescents-age_n_11796794.html
dimanche 28 avril 2019
vendredi 26 avril 2019
Apocalyptic prediction and our present reality
The origins of this disease (MCD millennial climate disease) can be traced to Ehrlich's 1968 book "The Population Bomb". He said:
How Fogel determined the calories consumption and its distribution in his book on the escape from hunger and famine in 1700 (Europe)...
One very interesting method in nutritional data gathering in history is the methods of determination of calories consumption and its distribution.
"Sources of information on diet.
"Sources of information on diet.
Historical estimates of mean caloric consumption per capita have been derived from several principal sources: national food balance sheets; household consumption surveys; food allotments in hospitals, poor houses, prisons, the armed forces, and other lower-class institutions; food entitlements to widows in wills; and food allotments in noble households, abbeys, and similar wealthy institutions. National food-balance sheets estimate the national supply of food by subtracting from the
national annual production of each crop, allowances for
seed and feed, losses in processing, changes in inventories,
and net exports (positive or negative) to obtain a residual of
grains and vegetables available for consumption. In the case
of meats, the estimates begin with the stock of livestock,
which is turned into an annual flow of meat by using estimates
of the annual slaughter ratio and live weight of each
type of livestock. To estimate the meat available for consumption
it is necessary to estimate the ratio of dressed to
carcass weight, as well as the distribution of dressed weight
among lean meat, fat, and bones (Fogel and Engerman
1974, 2:91-99).
Household surveys are based upon interviews with families
who are asked to recall their diets for a period as short as one day (the previous day) or their average diet over a
period of a week, a month, a year, or an undefined period
designated by their "normal diet." In recent times, such surveys
may be based on a daily record of the food consumed,
which is kept either by a member of the family or by a
professional investigator. Institutional food allowances are
based on food allotments for each class of individuals laid
down as a guide for provisions purchased by the institution
(as in the case of victualing allowances for military organizations
and daily diet schedules adopted in abbeys, noble
households, schools, workhouses, hospitals, and prisons)
as well as descriptions of meals actually served and actual
purchases of food for given numbers of individuals over
particular time periods (Oddy 1970; Appleby 1979; Morell
1983; Dyer 1983). Food entitlements of widows and aged
parents were specified in wills and contracts for maintenance
between parents and children or other heirs (in anticipation
of the surrender of a customary holding to an heir).
Such food entitlements have been analyzed for England,
France, the United States, and other countries at intermittent
dates between the thirteenth century and the present
(Bernard [1969] 1975; Dyer 1983; McMahon 1981; for
some studies of other countries, see Hemardinquer 1970
and Fogel 1986c).
Although these sources of information on the average
consumption of nutrients contain valuable information,
they are also fraught with difficulties. In the case of the
national food-balance sheets, for example, the accuracy of
the estimates depends in the first instance on the accuracy
of the production figures and on the various coefficients
used to transform outputs of grains and stocks of animals
into food available for human consumption. However, even
if the outputs and factors used to produce the national food
supply are accurate, the average amount of nutrients produced
is not necessarily equal to the average amount consumed.
Not only are there storage and food-processing
losses before the supply reaches the household, but there
are losses within the household as well. There is also the
question of the amount of food put on an individual's plate
that is not consumed (plate waste and scraps fed to pets).
Analysis of the estimates of average daily caloric consumption
for recent times in nations for which there exist
both national food-balance sheets (FBS) and household
consumption studies (HCS) not only indicates that the FBS
estimates generally exceed the HCS estimates of caloric
consumption, but also that the gap is positively correlated
with the level of income. As the food distribution system
becomes more complex, it apparently becomes more difficult
to correct FBS estimates for losses as food passes
through the system. On the other hand, it is possible that at
low income levels both FBS and HCS underestimate food
consumption because they do not adequately reflect such
foods as wild nuts, fish, and game (Dowler and Seo 1985;
FAO 1983; cf. Srinivasan 1992).
Household consumption surveys, especially those of past
times, have their own set of problems. They focus largely on lower-class diets and are generally judgment samples.
Hence, it is difficult to know their precise location in the
national distributions of calories and other nutrients. Because
these surveys sometimes include information on the
income of households, it is possible to relate consumption
to the income (or expenditure) of households. Such studies
for English budgets generally indicate an income elasticity
of the demand for food between the 1780s and the mid-
1850s that is at the high end of those found for lessdeveloped
nations today, which is not inconsistent with estimates
of English per capita income for that period. However,
scholars disagree over whether these households were
below or above the middle of the English income distribution
for their period or whether the reported income understates
or overstates the true household income. Although
information on the size distribution of income before World
War I is sparse, that which is available can be used to locate
households in nutrient distributions (Crafts 1981; Woodward
1981; Shammas 1983, 1984, and 1990; Fogel 1987).
Sources of information about food allotments in institutions
and about food entitlements in wills often suffer from
a common problem: lack of information on the age and sex
of the recipients. As table 2 indicates, caloric requirements
vary so significantly by age and sex that failure to standardize
for these characteristics may cause misleading interpretations
of the adequacy of diets, and shifts in the age-sex structure over time may bias the estimated trends in nutrition.
Food wasting varied greatly by institutions so that the
proportion of the food supply actually consumed was much
lower in noble households than in poor households. No
one, for example, could have consumed regularly the daily
allowance at the royal households in Sweden of foods containing
6,400 calories (Heckscher 1954, 21-22, 68-70).
Even allowing for heavy work and cold climate, one-third
to one-half of the allowance must have been wasted in
storage, in preparation, on the plate, or it was dispersed.
These and other problems make it clear that sources of
evidence on nutrient consumption are strewn with pitfalls,
but problematic sources are not unique to energy cost accounting.
As with national income accounting, energy cost
accounting provides a systematic framework for bringing
together the diverse pieces of evidence bearing on energy
intake and output, for examining the consistency of the various
bits with each other, and for making informed judgments
on how best to interpret the available evidence.
Size distributions of calories. Size distributions of caloric
consumption are one of the most potent instruments in assessing
the plausibility of proffered estimates of average
diets. They not only bear on the implications of a given
level of caloric consumption for morbidity and mortality
rates, but they also indicate whether the calories available for work are consistent with the level of agricultural output
and with the distribution of the labor force between agriculture
and nonagriculture (Fogel and Floud 1991; Fogel
1991b). Although national food-balance sheets, such as
those constructed by Toutain ( 1971) for France over the period
1781-1952, provide mean values of per capita caloric
consumption, they do not produce estimates of the size distribution
of calories. In principle it is possible to construct
size distributions of calories from household consumption
surveys. Inasmuch as most of these surveys during the nineteenth
century were focused on the lower classes, in order
to make use of them it is necessary to know from what
centiles of either the national caloric or the national income
distribution the surveyed households were drawn.
Three factors make it possible to estimate the size distributions
of calories from the patchy evidence available to
historians. First, studies covering a wide range of countries
indicate that distributions of calories are well described by
the lognormal distribution. Second, the variation in the distribution
of calories (as measured by the coefficient of variation
[siX] or the Gini [G] ratio) is far more limited than
the distribution of income. In contradistinction to income,
the bottom tail of the caloric distribution is sharply restricted
by the requirement for basal metabolism and the
prevailing death rate. At the top end it is restricted by the
human capacity to use energy and the distribution of body
builds. Consequently, the extent of the inequality of caloric
distributions is pretty well bounded by 0.4 ::::: (siX) 2:: 0.2
(0.22 2:: G 2:: 0.11) (FAO 1977; U.S. National Center for
Health Statistics 1977; Lipton 1983; Aitchison and Brown
1966).
HISTORICAL METHODS
Third, when the mean of the distribution is known, the
coefficient of variation (which together with the mean determines
the distribution) can be estimated from information
in either tail of the distribution. Fortunately, even in
places and periods where little is known about ordinary
people, there is a relative abundance of information about
the rich. Although much remains to be learned about the
ultra poor, much has already been learned about them during
the past quarter century, and such information is also
helpful in resolving the identification problem. However, at
the bottom end, it is demographic information, particularly
the death rate, that rather tightly constrains the proportion
of the population whose average daily consumption of calories
could have been below BMR or baseline maintenance.
The bottom end is also constrained by the requirement that
the energy available to the agricultural labor force is sufficient
to produce the agricultural output.
Table 3 presents three possible size distributions of calories
in France circa 1785 (see the Appendix for procedures
employed in construction of these distributions). They are
all lognormal distributions and are denominated in daily caloric
consumption per consuming unit. They all have the
same mean (2,290 kcal) but differ in their coefficients of
variation. For reasons that will become clear in the following
discussion, distributions B and C are more egalitarian
than the distribution of calories that now exists in the
United States, although the U.S. distribution of calories is
far more egalitarian than that of its income or of the income
of any major nation in the world today (Paukert 1973; Sawyer
1976; Kuznets 1966). The degree of egalitarianism is
measured by the coefficient of variation and the Gini ratio, which are closely related to each other. Distribution A is
the least egalitarian in its distribution of calories, although
with a Gini ratio of 0.22 it is far more egalitarian than the
income distribution of any major nation. Distribution B,
which has about the same coefficient of variation as the
Philippines in 1965 (G = 0.17), is one of the most egalitarian
of the known caloric distributions for less-developed
nations today. Distribution C, with a coefficient of variation
of 0.20 and a Gini ratio of 0.11, is considerably more egalitarian
than any of the national distributions of calories currently
available (FAO 1977; U.S. National Center for
Health Statistics 1977; Lipton 1983).
Consideration of table 3 makes it possible to illustrate
how the patchy evidence can be brought to bear in choosing
which of the three distributions comes closest to representing
the situation in France circa 1785. Even before we consider
its consistency with the available historical evidence,
table 3 yields an important implication, one that is robust
to any plausible assumption about the egalitarianism of the
French calorie distribution on the eve of the French Revolution.
The bottom tenth of French households lacked the
energy to participate regularly in the labor force. Another
robust point is that the average caloric consumption of the
middle classes (fourth through the eighth deciles) is largely
independent of the assumption about the egalitarianism of
the caloric distribution. Their mean consumption is virtually
the same under distributions A and C (2,263 and
2,276) and only slightly higher (2,296) under distribution
B. The assumptions about the degree of egalitarianism in
the diet of the late ancien regime have their cutting edge on
the two highest and the two lowest deciles.
Allowing for adaptation of the two lowest deciles to their
status, which includes absolutely no waste of any food, and
assuming energy balance at exceedingly low body masses
(average body mass index [BMI] = 15),5 an average of
about 1 ,240 calories would still have been required for
BMR and about 1 ,570 calories for long-term survival of
inactive equivalent adults. 6 Consequently, distribution A
not only implies that the poorest 21 percent of French
households had no energy available even for minimal sustained
work, but that the majority of those in the two bottom
deciles were starving to death-about a third of them
quite rapidly because their intake was below basal metabolism.
7 Such high proportions of starvation diets during normal
times is inconsistent with what is known about the condition
of the French lower classes during this period
(Goubert 1973; Jones 1988; Dupaquier 1989).
Distribution C, on the other hand, implies levels of consumption
in the highest decile that are inconsistent with
what is known about the conditions of rentiers as well as of
the nobility and their retainers who made up that decile of
consumers of calories. Not only did the form of food consumption
lead to significant losses of nutrients, but it is also
likely that plate waste was high. Such losses probably reduced
actual consumption by about 10 percent (to about
2,860 kcals per equivalent adult). Thus, distribution C im-
II
plies that France's richest tenth had only enough energy for
about 5 hours of moderate activity per day (Goubert 1973;
Quenouille et al. 1951; FAO/WHO/UNU 1985). 8 Thus, because
of its implications about the diet of the rich, high
egalitarianism is as implausible as low egalitarianism because
of its implications about the diet of the poor.
We are left with moderate egalitarianism (distribution B)
as a plausible assumption. Under that distribution only the
bottom 15 percent of households is entirely unproductive,
and those subject to rapid starvation are less than 2 percent
of the population, a finding consistent with what is known
about mortality rates during the ancien regime (Goubert
1973; Bourgeois-Pi chat 1965; INED 1977; Flinn 1981;
Weir 1984 and 1989; Galloway 1986; Dupaquier 1989).
Similarly, under distribution B, given the same assumptions
about waste made previously, the richest decile of the population
has on average enough energy for nearly 9 hours a
day of moderate activity: about the same amount of energy
available for a moderately active adult male from the prosperous
classes in developed nations today (Lipton 1983;
U.S. National Center for Health Statistics 1977).
The French distribution is also consistent with what is
known about the English consumption of calories circa
1790. Table 4 presents the probable English distribution,
which was based on estimates of mean consumption derived
from household budget surveys, and compares it with
the French distribution B. The mean consumption of calories
was about 18 percent higher in England than in France,
which is consistent with recent estimates of the relative productivity
of agriculture in the two countries (O'Brien and
Keyder 1978; Wrigley 1987b; Hoffman 1988; Grantham
1992; Allen 1991). Moreover, the average levels are not out
of keeping with recent experiences in the less-developed
nations. Low as it is, Toutain's estimate of the French supply
of calories is above the average supply of calories in
1965 estimated for such nations as Pakistan, Rwanda, and
Algeria, and only slightly less (39 calories) than that of
Indonesia. The English estimate is above that for thirty
less-developed nations in 1965-including China, Bolivia,
the Philippines, and Honduras-and only slightly below
(37 calories) India (World Bank 1987).
The distributional implications of the two estimates are
consistent with both qualitative and quantitative descriptions
of the diets of various social classes (Hufton 1974,
1983; Goubert 1973; L. Tilly 1971; C. Tilly 1975; Frijhoff
and Julia 1979; Blum 1978; Cole and Postgate [1938] 1956;
Rose 1971; Drummond and Wilbraham 1958; Pullar 1970;
Wilson 1973; Burnett 1979; Mennell 1985). For example,
Bernard's study (l1969] 1975) of marriage contracts made
in the Gevaudan during the third quarter of the eighteenth
century revealed that the average ration provided for parents
in complete pensions contained about 1,674 calories. Because
the average age of a male parent at the marriage of
his first surviving child was about 59, the preceding figure
implies a diet of about 2,146 calories per consuming unit
(Fogel 1987). That figure falls at the 47th centi1e of the estimated French distribution, which is quite consistent
with the class of peasants described by Bernard.
So far I have assumed that Toutain's estimate of the mean
consumption of calories circa 1785 is acceptable in the
sense that its distributional implications are not implausible.
However, other estimates of mean French caloric consumption
circa 1785 may also be consistent with moderate
egalitarianism. Some of Toutain's critics have argued that
his estimate for circa 1785 is too low because it neglects or
underestimates the caloric contribution of wild foods and
wine; others believe this estimate is too high because it
overestimates production of grain or other nutrients (Le
Roy Ladurie 1979; Jones 1988; Bekaert 1991; Grantham
1992). The range of differences suggested by critics is on
the order of plus or minus 200 kcal per capita (plus or minus
260 kcal per consuming unit).
The plausibility of the outer limits of this range of potential
error can be evaluated by looking at the consistency
between the estimates of agricultural output, of labor productivity
in agriculture, and of the energy available to produce
that output. Because the procedures for such an evaluation
have been described at length elsewhere (Fogel and
Floud 1991; Fogel 1991 b) and because of space limitations,
only a brief description can be provided here. The procedure
turns on the proposition that human populations can
alter their basal metabolic rate by adjusting their body
sizes. In this way the share of available dietary energy required
for maintenance can be reduced and that available
for work can be increased. In the short run, such adjustments
can only be made by varying body mass. In the long
run, height can also be varied. 9
An implication of this proposition is that the aggregate
amount of energy available for work during a given year
depends on the aggregate supply of dietary energy available
in that year and the aggregate amount of dietary energy
required for maintenance, which is a function of the average
equivalent adult stature and BMI during that year. Hence,
when average height and BMI are known, it is possible to
determine whether the energy available for work by the agricultural
labor force is adequate to produce the estimated
dietary output (measured in kcal). One can obtain the output
of calories permitted by energy available for work by
multiplying the energy that farmers expend on their tasks
by a measure of the productivity of agricultural labor,
which in this case is the "caloric productivity" ratio. When
this procedure is applied to the lower bound (2,030 kcal per
consuming unit) suggested by critics of Toutain, not enough
energy is available beyond maintenance to produce 2,030
kcal per consuming unit, even though it is assumed that
French agricultural labor was as productive as English agricultural
labor. 10
When the same test is applied to the upper bound (2,550
kcal per consuming unit), one obtains the odd result that
the energy available for work should have yielded far more
dietary energy than was produced by the French. The result
is a consequence of having assumed that the French were
as efficient as the English in the production of dietary
energy. Thus, it is necessary to ask the following: If 2,550
kcal is the correct mean level of French dietary production,
how much less efficient than English agricultural labor
would French agricultural labor have had to have been in
order to reduce the implied level of energy production to
2,550 kcal per consuming unit? The answer is that French
agricultural laborers must have been less than one-quarter
as productive as their English counterparts. This figure is
too far below current estimates of relative productivity in
the two countries to be acceptable.
It is interesting that Toutain's mean-2,290 kcal per consuming unit-also implies that the energy available for
work was excessive, when it is assumed that French and
English agriculture had the same outpuUinput ratios of dietary
energy. In this case, however, the available energy
input becomes consistent with the estimated energy output
when it is assumed that the French were about half as productive
as the English, a figure that is in accord with current
estimates of the relative levels of productivity in the agricultural
sectors of the two countries (Marineau 1971;
O'Brien and Keyder 1978, 1979; Crouzet 1985; Wrigley
1987b; Hoffman 1988, 1991; Allen 1988, 1993; Grantham
1989, 1990, 1991; cf. Cameron and Freedman 1983;
Allen and O'Grada 1988).
Why is it that Toutain 's estimate of mean consumption
circa 1785 fits with the productivity constraint so well, despite
his acknowledgment that wines and cider omitted
from his estimate may have accounted for 10 percent of
consumption? Part of the answer is offsetting errors. His
figure refers not to calories ingested but to calories produced
for human consumption. It does not contain adequate
allowances for losses in inventory, in processing, during
distribution, or for plate waste, all of which may have run
in the neighborhood of 15 percent of output ( cf. McCloskey
and Nash 1984). Consequently, if 2,694 kcal per consuming
unit were available for consumption at the point of production
(and immediately after the harvest) an average of
2,290 would have been consumed. The difference between
these numbers is 404 kcals per consuming unit, enough to
cover omitted wine and still leave over 140 kcal for wild
foods. In other words, even though it underestimates production
by 15 percent, 2,290 kcal could be an appropriate
estimate of calories consumed.
The preceding discussion of Toutain's estimate is meant
to illustrate the procedures and constraints that can be
brought into play when evaluating contending estimates of
mean caloric consumption and is not meant to prematurely
close off debate about these estimates. I have tried to stress
the need to drop the often implicit assumption that all individuals
consume the mean level of caloric intake, and to
consider the implications of the tails of caloric distributions
when assessing proposed means. In this connection special
attention should be paid to the implications for mortality
rates as well as the consistency between the calories available
for work and implied level of labor productivity. Such
implications need to be tested against independent estimates
of mortality rates and of labor productivity, especially
in agriculture."
New Sources and New Techniques for the Study
of Secular Trends in Nutritional Status, Health,
Mortality, and the Process of Aging
Robert William Fogel
To cite this article: Robert William Fogel (1993) New Sources and New Techniques for the
Study of Secular Trends in Nutritional Status, Health, Mortality, and the Process of Aging,
Historical Methods: A Journal of Quantitative and Interdisciplinary History, 26:1, 5-43, DOI:
10.1080/01615440.1993.10594215
To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01615440.1993.10594215
jeudi 25 avril 2019
A sensible view on gene therapy
https://www.europeanscientist.com/en/public-health/gene-therapy-science-at-a-crossroads/#comment-1782
"Correct or rewrite
Gene therapy is an experimental technique that uses genes to treat or prevent a disease. This incredible odyssey began with the discovery of DNA by Miescher in 1869, the double helix by Watson and Crick in 1953, then continued with the sequencing of the human genome in February 2001, and recently the discovery of CRISPR. Indeed, without excessive simplification, it can be said that living organisms have perfected their genome over the course of their evolution. Consequently, there are often several genes for the same function and conversely several functions for the same gene.
Many techniques can be used to modify the genetic abnormality that causes a disease. It is possible to decrease or switch off the expression of a gene without altering the genetic capital of the individual. To approach it from another angle, you can increase the activity of a gene that supplements the deficient gene. Or you can modify the genetic capital by using a vector that will insert a gene into the genome of cells of various tissues — most often a virus. Finally, it has become possible to rewrite the genetic code, thanks to CRISPR-Cas9, a system derived from bacteria, which suppresses or replaces one gene with another on the DNA at a specific location."
1/ Mitochondria. Mitochondrial donation is special gene therapy which aim is to treat symptomatic genetic anomalies in the DNA of our energy factory. It is a good but complex example of the issue I raised in this short paper. Shortly mitochondrial donation is a germline therapy so we have to build the predictability models of its long term consequences.
2/ Price. It will be easier than previously. Indeed those techniques rely first on testing the human genome of adults and/or oocytes which is a fully automated process which price is very affordable. Secondly, the lab techniques are far less complex and expensive than doing an open heart operation. So let the market open a free competition between corporations (which is presently the case not only in one country but in all advanced countries) and prices will lower fastly.
1 / Mitochondries. Le don mitochondrial est une thérapie génique spéciale qui vise à traiter les anomalies génétiques symptomatiques dans l'ADN de notre usine d'énergie. C’est un bon exemple, mais complexe, de la question que j’ai soulevée dans ce court document. En bref, le don mitochondrial étant une thérapie germinale, nous devons élaborer des modèles de prévisibilité de ses conséquences à long terme.
2 / Prix. Ce sera plus facile que précédemment. En effet, ces techniques reposent en premier lieu sur le test du génome humain des adultes et / ou des ovocytes, processus entièrement automatisé dont le prix est très abordable. Deuxièmement, les techniques de laboratoire sont beaucoup moins complexes et coûteuses qu’une opération à cœur ouvert. Laissons donc le marché ouvrir la voie à une libre concurrence entre les entreprises (ce qui est actuellement le cas non seulement dans un pays, mais dans tous les pays avancés) et les prix vont baisser rapidement.
"Correct or rewrite
Gene therapy is an experimental technique that uses genes to treat or prevent a disease. This incredible odyssey began with the discovery of DNA by Miescher in 1869, the double helix by Watson and Crick in 1953, then continued with the sequencing of the human genome in February 2001, and recently the discovery of CRISPR. Indeed, without excessive simplification, it can be said that living organisms have perfected their genome over the course of their evolution. Consequently, there are often several genes for the same function and conversely several functions for the same gene.
Many techniques can be used to modify the genetic abnormality that causes a disease. It is possible to decrease or switch off the expression of a gene without altering the genetic capital of the individual. To approach it from another angle, you can increase the activity of a gene that supplements the deficient gene. Or you can modify the genetic capital by using a vector that will insert a gene into the genome of cells of various tissues — most often a virus. Finally, it has become possible to rewrite the genetic code, thanks to CRISPR-Cas9, a system derived from bacteria, which suppresses or replaces one gene with another on the DNA at a specific location."
1/ Mitochondria. Mitochondrial donation is special gene therapy which aim is to treat symptomatic genetic anomalies in the DNA of our energy factory. It is a good but complex example of the issue I raised in this short paper. Shortly mitochondrial donation is a germline therapy so we have to build the predictability models of its long term consequences.
2/ Price. It will be easier than previously. Indeed those techniques rely first on testing the human genome of adults and/or oocytes which is a fully automated process which price is very affordable. Secondly, the lab techniques are far less complex and expensive than doing an open heart operation. So let the market open a free competition between corporations (which is presently the case not only in one country but in all advanced countries) and prices will lower fastly.
1 / Mitochondries. Le don mitochondrial est une thérapie génique spéciale qui vise à traiter les anomalies génétiques symptomatiques dans l'ADN de notre usine d'énergie. C’est un bon exemple, mais complexe, de la question que j’ai soulevée dans ce court document. En bref, le don mitochondrial étant une thérapie germinale, nous devons élaborer des modèles de prévisibilité de ses conséquences à long terme.
2 / Prix. Ce sera plus facile que précédemment. En effet, ces techniques reposent en premier lieu sur le test du génome humain des adultes et / ou des ovocytes, processus entièrement automatisé dont le prix est très abordable. Deuxièmement, les techniques de laboratoire sont beaucoup moins complexes et coûteuses qu’une opération à cœur ouvert. Laissons donc le marché ouvrir la voie à une libre concurrence entre les entreprises (ce qui est actuellement le cas non seulement dans un pays, mais dans tous les pays avancés) et les prix vont baisser rapidement.
mercredi 24 avril 2019
mardi 23 avril 2019
Saturated fats: new episode
https://www.lchf-rd.com/2019/04/07/new-study-dietary-saturated-fat-intake-is-not-associated-with-increased-risk-of-cardiovascular-disease/?fbclid=IwAR1pANOfsH5gvxukyTkA9TxY8-TFg55r8XM3u81OJRZkgOv5f_Y6j_fDpMQ
- Zhu Y, Bo Y, Liu Y, Dietary total fat, fatty acids intake, and risk
of cardiovascular disease: a dose-response meta-analysis of cohort studies, Lipids in Health and Disease (2019) 18:91, https://doi.org/10.1186/s12944-019-1035-2
 |
| Don't eat ANY trans fat |
 |
| Don't eat ANY trans fat |
Discrepancies in absolute risks among studies
Statins in primary prevention: a cohort study
https://heart.bmj.com/content/early/2019/04/16/heartjnl-2018-314253
2260 vs 1970 per 100000 both under statins but the second group has "optimal" LDLc reduction
12142 events in 84609 patients during 6,2 y
10656 in 80802 patients during 6,2 y
Absolute risk: 13,19% versus 14,86%
Olive oil vs (olive oil + nuts) vs standard low fat: RCT
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa1800389
96 versus 83 versus 109
respectively 2543, 2454, 2450 during 4,8y
96/2543= 3,78%
83/2454= 3,38%
109/2450=4,45%
https://heart.bmj.com/content/early/2019/04/16/heartjnl-2018-314253
2260 vs 1970 per 100000 both under statins but the second group has "optimal" LDLc reduction
12142 events in 84609 patients during 6,2 y
10656 in 80802 patients during 6,2 y
Absolute risk: 13,19% versus 14,86%
Olive oil vs (olive oil + nuts) vs standard low fat: RCT
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa1800389
96 versus 83 versus 109
respectively 2543, 2454, 2450 during 4,8y
96/2543= 3,78%
83/2454= 3,38%
109/2450=4,45%
vendredi 19 avril 2019
jeudi 18 avril 2019
The twin epidemics
10.1038/nm0106-75
"The “Diabesity” epidemic (obesity and type 2 diabetes) is likely to be the biggest epidemic in human history. Diabetes has been seriously underrated as a global public health issue and the world can no longer ignore “the rise and rise” of type 2 diabetes. Currently, most of the national and global diabetes estimates come from the IDF Atlas. These estimates have significant limitations from a public health perspective. It is apparent that the IDF have consistently underestimated the global burden. More reliable estimates of the future burden of diabetes are urgently needed. To prevent type 2 diabetes, a better understanding of the drivers of the epidemic is needed. While for years, there has been comprehensive attention to the “traditional” risk factors for type 2 diabetes i.e., genes, lifestyle and behavioral change, the spotlight is turning to the impact of the intra-uterine environment and epigenetics on future risk in adult life. It highlights the urgency for discovering novel approaches to prevention focusing on maternal and child health. Diabetes risk through epigenetic changes can be transmitted inter-generationally thus creating a vicious cycle that will continue to feed the diabetes epidemic. Yes, diabetes is the greatest epidemic in human history. It has affected the greatest numbers, it has had the greatest cost [46], and it is not over yet."
 |
| The review was published in 2005: VOLUME 12 | NUMBER 1 | JANUARY 2005 NATURE MEDICINE |
"The “Diabesity” epidemic (obesity and type 2 diabetes) is likely to be the biggest epidemic in human history. Diabetes has been seriously underrated as a global public health issue and the world can no longer ignore “the rise and rise” of type 2 diabetes. Currently, most of the national and global diabetes estimates come from the IDF Atlas. These estimates have significant limitations from a public health perspective. It is apparent that the IDF have consistently underestimated the global burden. More reliable estimates of the future burden of diabetes are urgently needed. To prevent type 2 diabetes, a better understanding of the drivers of the epidemic is needed. While for years, there has been comprehensive attention to the “traditional” risk factors for type 2 diabetes i.e., genes, lifestyle and behavioral change, the spotlight is turning to the impact of the intra-uterine environment and epigenetics on future risk in adult life. It highlights the urgency for discovering novel approaches to prevention focusing on maternal and child health. Diabetes risk through epigenetic changes can be transmitted inter-generationally thus creating a vicious cycle that will continue to feed the diabetes epidemic. Yes, diabetes is the greatest epidemic in human history. It has affected the greatest numbers, it has had the greatest cost [46], and it is not over yet."
lundi 15 avril 2019
Dysnutrition
Dysnutrition is a mismatch between industrial products and our metabolism and genomics... The "universal diet" of Lancet and others made of grains and soy is the same food engineering than the previous one which demonized fat, cholesterol and meat, leading to obesity and to T2D...
Is "natural fructose" healthier than an industrial fructose or a chemical one? The folly of bad journalism
https://www.lequotidiendumedecin.fr/actualites/article/2019/04/01/sirop-de-mais-et-fructose-stimulent-le-cancer-colorectal_867470?fbclid=IwAR3nDFeLLVWTXo509WOz_tPGzSX3rc2PegKTtj4mKx3JqAOekn0zL7MQzSQ
"Together these findings suggest that therapeutic targeting of fructose metabolism may merit investigation as a strategy for slowing the progression of CRC. Our study also provides important preclinical evidence that the combination of dietary glucose and fructose, even at moderate dose, can enhance intestinal tumor growth. Whether these findings can be extrapolated to humans requires further investigation."
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6433/1345
"Together these findings suggest that therapeutic targeting of fructose metabolism may merit investigation as a strategy for slowing the progression of CRC. Our study also provides important preclinical evidence that the combination of dietary glucose and fructose, even at moderate dose, can enhance intestinal tumor growth. Whether these findings can be extrapolated to humans requires further investigation."
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6433/1345
"A sweetener's not-so-sweet effects
Obesity increases an individual's risk of developing many types of cancer, including colorectal cancer. One of the factors driving the rise in obesity rates is thought to be the use of high-fructose corn syrup (HFCS) as a sweetener in soft drinks. Goncalves et al. found that ingestion of HFCS promotes the growth of intestinal cancer even in the absence of obesity in mouse tumor models. An enzyme in tumors (ketohexokinase) converts fructose to fructose-1-phosphate, which alters tumor cell metabolism and leads to enhanced cell growth. Whether a similar process occurs in humans remains to be seen."
For those people who "believe" that it is "chemical sugars" which are involved, I want to recall that table sugar is Glucose-Fructose!
"Ensemble, ces résultats suggèrent que le ciblage thérapeutique du métabolisme du fructose pourrait mériter d'être étudié comme une stratégie permettant de ralentir la progression du CCR. Notre étude fournit également une preuve préclinique importante que la combinaison de glucose alimentaire et de fructose peut, même à dose modérée, stimuler la croissance tumorale intestinale. La question de savoir si ces découvertes peuvent être extrapolées à l'homme nécessite des recherches supplémentaires. "
"Les effets amers d'un sucre sucrant
L'obésité augmente le risque de développer plusieurs types de cancer, y compris le cancer colorectal. On pense que l’utilisation du sirop de maïs à haute teneur en fructose (SHTF) comme édulcorant dans les boissons non alcoolisées est l’un des principaux facteurs de la hausse du taux d’obésité. Goncalves et al. ont constaté que l’ingestion de SHTF favorise la croissance du cancer de l’intestin même en l’absence d’obésité dans les modèles tumoraux de souris. Une enzyme dans les tumeurs (cétohexokinase) convertit le fructose en fructose-1-phosphate, ce qui modifie le métabolisme des cellules tumorales et conduit à une croissance cellulaire accrue. Reste à savoir si un processus similaire se produit chez l'homme. "
Pour ceux qui "croient" qu'il s'agit de "sucres chimiques", je tiens à rappeler que le sucre de table est du glucose-fructose!
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| Le mythe des sucres naturels... |
vendredi 12 avril 2019
Warning: the present war on meat, dairy, eggs and seafoods
Animaux: une vaste entreprise pour vous priver de la liberté de choisir
Manger des produits animaux est une constante de toute l’histoire de l’humanité. Pêcher, chasser et élever des animaux a présenté des avantages évolutionnistes nombreux notamment au niveau du développement du cerveau humain (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12083408). Le berger, l’éleveur, le producteur de lait, d’oeufs ou le pêcheur sont les acteurs économiques d’un système mondial qui contribue à nourrir les humains avec des standards de production très élevés et des niveaux de qualité inégalés dans le passé.
Une guerre idéologique.
Pour autant trois idéologies menaçantes sont en marche pour détruire à terme ce système de production et par ricochet supprimer la consommation de tout produit animal. Main dans la main, écologistes, végans et postmodernistes s’activent pour priver les populations de la liberté de choisir leur alimentation. Les écologistes ont fait du climat une religion millénariste qui annonce régulièrement une apocalypse toujours plus proche. Les végans, à ne pas confondre aves les végétariens, sont aujourd’hui intolérants au point d’attaquer des boucheries ou de vouloir interdire la consommation de viande. Ils sont très actifs dans les instances supranationales comme l’ONU ou l’OMS et le régime végétarien universel qu’ils pronent ressemble à leurs précédentes croisades contre le gras ou les graisses saturées. Troisième acteur, les postmodernistes sont les activistes subventionnés du militantisme antispéciste, anticroissance, antiprocréation, antiscience. Ces trois idéologies pronent la violence déconstructive et la mettent en oeuvre dans un cadre mondialiste anticapitaliste. En même temps, comme ils sont issus du marxisme, ils ferment les yeux sur les catastrophes humaines et environnementales du socialisme réel qu’ils ne se cachent pas de promouvoir. Enfin ces agitateurs instillent dans la société un climat de défiance et poussent à la lutte de tous contre tous, seule assurance de leur victoire finale. Leurs relais médiatiques, acquis à toute cause “progressiste”, contribuent à la terrorisation ou au baillonnement de ceux et celles qui n’acceptent pas leur dogme. La liberté de mener et choisir sa vie est chaque jour un peu plus menacée par les oukases de ces minorités agissantes qui imposent leurs choix dans une démocratie bafouée. En effet le pouvoir politique s’est engagé dans une connivence à visée électorale, véritable course au mieux disant politiquement correct.
Faisons appel à notre rationalité.
Ne nous laissons pas abuser par la pensée rapide qui est souvent une répétition pavlovienne des messages médiatiques. Il n’y a pas de preuves scientifiques à l’appui de ces agissements. Mieux, ce que nous apprend la science est le contraire de cette religion.
L’élevage français n’est pas le pollueur qui est décrit par ces agitateurs. L’émission de gaz à effet de serre par l’agriculture française a baissé de 83,2 à 78,9 (Mt CO²e) entre 1990 et 2014 (https://www.climatexchange.org.uk/media/2082/eu_case_studies_france_ag_emissions.pdf). Notre production de viande et de lait qu’elle soit mixte ou à l’herbe, en zone tempérée, est le plus faible émetteur de gaz à effet de serre (http://www.fao.org/3/i3461e/i3461e.pdf). Dans ce domaine beaucoup reste à découvrir en particulier au sujet de l’élevage extensif qui n’a été supplanté par des sytèmes confinés avec une alimentation céréalière subventionnée que depuis une quarantaine d’années. Le cycle du carbone est favorablement influencé par le pâturage; les méthodes de séquestration du CO2 par les sols n’en sont qu’à leur début.
La viande de découpe est un aliment de grande qualité qui fait partie d’une alimentation favorable à la santé. Dans la viande tout est bon sauf les méthodes de cuisson agressives ou de transformation en produits salés, nitratés ou cuits. Cette viande de boucherie cuisinée selon nos traditions apporte satiété, plaisir et nutriments indispensables.
Si des abattoirs enfreignent la loi c’est bien à l’état de la faire respecter. Il est peu probable que ce soit un manque de moyens car notre dépense publique est une des trois plus élevées au monde. En revanche, dans ce domaine comme ailleurs la loi doit être la même pour tous.
Tous les indicateurs démontrent que la production d’oeufs n’a jamais été aussi sure sur le plan sanitaire et que la qualité nutritionnelle des oeufs n’a jamais été aussi mieux assurée. Tout a été essayé depuis 60 ans pour proscrire les oeufs au motif qu’ils contiennent du cholestérol, mais le consensus actuel basé sur de très nombreuses études est clair: l’oeuf est un merveilleux aliment. L’American Heart Association a d’ailleurs levé toute limite à la consommation de cholestérol alimentaire.
Les produits laitiers non transformés (lait entier, yaourts, beurre, crème fraiche et surtout fromages) sont très favorables à la santé à la fois par l’apport de protéines et de gras mais aussi pour les vitamines liposolubles. La consommation de fromages est associée à un risque plus faible de diabète type 2.
Les produits de la pêche sont indispensables à l’homme qui les consomme depuis le début de l’évolution en raison de leur richesse en acides gras oméga 3 longue chaine que nous ne synthétisons pas ou très peu. En réalité les phospholipides qui les contiennent représentent 60% du poids sec du cerveau. La surpêche qui menace réellement nos réserves halieutiques est une question qui du rôle régalien de l’état. Il est vital de préserver nos richesses et leur renouvellement dans l’immense réserve de nos eaux territoriales.
Un modèle alimentaire favorable à la santé.
La France grace à sa culture culinaire ancestrale, à ses agriculteurs qui sont des producteurs de produits de grande valeur souvent dans des entreprises familiales, a toujours un modèle alimentaire remarquable (http://foodsustainability.eiu.com/whitepaper-2018/). Un modèle où les choix de chacun jouent un rôle clé dans la santé humaine, dans la qualité de la production et de l’environnement. Avec une solide espérance de vie la France doit avant tout améliorer son modèle alimentaire mais surtout pas l’abandonner. Il en est de même de toutes les Blue Zones (https://observatoireprevention.org/2017/09/19/blue-zones-regions-lon-vit-mieux-plus-longtemps/) à travers le monde où l’espérance de vie est élevée. La déconstruction de ce système millénaire menacerait la santé de la population, l’économie de régions entières et notre richesse nationale. De surcroît, comme toute construction civilisationnelle, ce modèle est fragile ce qui signifie que le ruiner pourrait être irréversible.
Déconstruire pour laisser place à des intérêts et un modèle mondialisés?
Un train peut en cacher un autre. Cette guerre contre les produits animaux est une opportunité pour certains intérêts économiques. Les céréaliers français et étrangers guettent un basculement du marché car en pratique les végans s’alimentent surtout de produits de céréales ou de soja où ils font de meilleures marges. Les laboratoires de production in vitro de muscle ou de protéines sont prêts à prendre des parts de marché aux éleveurs en produisant dans des usines lointaines et surtout en prétendant que leurs produits sont équivalents, ce qui est faux en terme de nutriments et de prix. De surcroît ce mode de production est une perte d’autonomie alimentaire car ces entreprises sont par définition plus vulnérables à différents risques. Les chimistes proposent déjà à tous ces (futurs) carencés des suppléments nutritionnels dont certains remboursés par “l’assurance maladie”, sans aucune garantie d’efficacité et parfois des effets secondaires graves. Cette déconstruction est relayée par des groupes de scientifiques ou d’industriels comme EAT-Lancet ou d’autres (https://www.wbcsd.org/) qui ne sont que le levier de ces intérêts et de leur mantra: un régime alimentaire imposé à tous essentiellement à base de céréales de soja et de végétaux.
En culpabilisant les français, en les assomant de prédictions catastrophistes cet attelage idéologique et cet opportunisme marchand voudraient nous contraindre de jeter notre liberté et nos traditions pour supposément supprimer la pollution, la productivité, le profit. Cette contrainte non voilée est le premier signe d’une aventure autoritaire qui conduirait à la paupérisation.
Animals: a vast enterprise to deprive you of the freedom to choose
Eating animal products is a constant in the history of humanity. Fishing, hunting and raising animals has had many evolutionary benefits, particularly in the development of the human brain (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12083408). The shepherd, the breeder, the milk producer, the egg producer or the fisherman are the economic actors of a global system that contributes to feeding humans with very high production standards and levels of quality unmatched in the past.
An ideological war.
However, three threatening ideologies are working to eventually destroy this production system and indirectly eliminate the consumption of any animal product. Hand in hand, environmentalists, vegans and postmodernists are working to deprive people of the freedom to choose their food. Ecologists have made the climate a millenarian religion that regularly announces an ever closer apocalypse. Vegans, not to be confused with vegetarians, are now intolerant to the point of attacking butchery or wanting to prohibit the consumption of meat. They are very active in supra-national bodies such as the UN or the WHO, and the universal vegetarian diet they say resembles their previous crusades against fat or saturated fats. The third actor, postmodernists are subsidized activists of anti-specist, anti-growth, anti-creation and antiscience groups. These three ideologies pronounce deconstructive violence and implement it in a globalist anti-capitalist framework. At the same time, as they come from Marxism, they turn a blind eye to the human and environmental catastrophes of real socialism that they do not hide from promoting. Finally, these agitators instill in society a climate of distrust and push for the fight of all against all, the only assurance of their final victory. Their media relays, acquired for any "progressive" cause, contribute to the terrorization or gagging of those who do not accept their dogma. The freedom to lead and choose one's life is every day a little more threatened by the ukases of these acting minorities who impose their choices in a flouted democracy. Indeed, political power has engaged in an electoral connivance, a race to the best saying politically correct.
Let's use our rationality.
Do not be fooled by the fast thinking that is often a Pavlovian repetition of media messages. There is no scientific evidence to support these actions. Better, what science teaches us is the opposite of this religion.
French farming is not the polluter that is described by these agitators. The emission of greenhouse gases by French agriculture decreased from 83.2 to 78.9 (Mt CO²e) between 1990 and 2014 (https://www.climatexchange.org.uk/media/2082/eu_case_studies_france_ag_emissions .pdf). Our mixed and grass-based meat and milk production is the lowest emitter of greenhouse gases (http://www.fao.org/3/i3461e/i3461e). pdf). In this area, much remains to be discovered, particularly with regard to extensive livestock farming, which has been supplanted by confined farming with to a subsidized cereal diet (as CAFO) for only 40 years. The carbon cycle is favorably influenced by grazing; soil CO2 sequestration methods are only just beginning.
Cutting meat is a high-quality food that is part of a healthy diet. In meat, everything is good except aggressive cooking methods or processing into salted, nitrated or cooked products. This butcher's meat cooked according to our traditions brings satiety, pleasure and essential nutrients.
If slaughterhouses break the law, it is up to the state to enforce it. It is unlikely that it is a lack of means because our public expenditure is one of the three highest in the world. However, in this area as elsewhere the law must be the same for all.
All indicators show that egg production has never been so sanitary and that the nutritional quality of eggs has never been more secure. Everything has been tried for 60 years to ban the eggs because they contain cholesterol, but the current consensus based on many studies is clear: the egg is a wonderful food. The American Heart Association has also lifted any limit to the consumption of dietary cholesterol.
The unprocessed dairy products (whole milk, yoghurts, butter, cream and especially cheeses) are very favourable to health both by the intake of protein and fat but also for liposoluble vitamins.
Cheese consumption is associated with a lower risk of type 2 diabetes.
Fish products are indispensable to the man who has consumed them since the beginning of evolution because of their richness in long chain omega 3 fatty acids that we do not synthesize or very little. In fact, the phospholipids that contain them represent 60% of the dry weight of the brain. Overfishing, which is really threatening our fish stocks, is a question of the sovereign role of the state. It is vital to preserve our wealth and renewal in the vast reserve of our territorial waters.
A healthy food model.
France thanks to its ancestral culinary culture, to its farmers who are producers of high-value products often in family businesses, always has a remarkable food model (http://foodsustainability.eiu.com/whitepaper-2018/). A model where the choices of each play a key role in human health, in the quality of production and the environment. With a solid life expectancy, France must above all improve its food model, but not abandon it. The same is true of all Blue Zones (https://observatoireprevention.org/2017/09/19/blue-zones-regions-lon-vit-mieux- plus-longtemps/) throughout the world where life expectancy is high. The deconstruction of this millennial system would threaten the health of the population, the economy of entire regions and our national wealth. Moreover, like any civilizational construction, this model is fragile which means that the ruin could be irreversible.
Deconstruct to make room for globalized interests and model?
One train can hide another. This war against animal products is an opportunity for some economic interests. French and foreign grain farmers are looking for tipping of the market because in practice vegans feed mainly cereal or soy products where they make better margins. In vitro muscle or protein, production laboratories are ready to take market share from breeders by producing in distant factories and especially by claiming that their products are equivalent, which is wrong in terms of nutrients and prices. In addition, this mode of production is a loss of food autonomy because these companies are by definition more vulnerable to different risks. Chemists already offer all these (future) deficient people, nutritional supplements, some of which are reimbursed by "health insurance", without any guarantee of effectiveness and sometimes serious side effects. This deconstruction is relayed by groups of scientists or corporations like EAT-Lancet or others (https://www.wbcsd.org/) who are only the lever of these interests and their mantra: a diet imposed on all mainly from soy, cereals and vegetables.
By blaming the French, by blaming them for catastrophic predictions, this ideological team and this mercantile opportunism would force us to throw away our freedom and our traditions to supposedly suppress pollution, productivity, profit. This unveiled constraint is the first sign of an authoritarian adventure that would lead to impoverishment.
As a matter of facts, some people realized that such a planning agenda for world agriculture would be a tragic disruption.
https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.l1700
https://www.bmj.com/content/365/bmj.l1700/rapid-responses
https://newfoodeconomy.org/world-health-organization-drops-its-high-profile-endorsement-of-the-eat-lancet-diet/
https://italiarappginevra.esteri.it/rappginevra/en/ambasciata/news/dall-ambasciata/2019/03/comunicato-stampa-sul-lancio-del.html
https://italiarappginevra.esteri.it/rappginevra/en/ambasciata/news/dall-ambasciata/2019/03/evento-di-lancio-a-ginevra-del.html
https://newfoodeconomy.org/eat-lancet-meat-sustainability/
Proofs of dysnutrition in EAT LAncet
http://www.zoeharcombe.com/2019/01/the-eat-lancet-diet-is-nutritionally-deficient/
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-agriculture/2019/02/21/eat-lancet-kicks-off-in-washington-519409
The final point:
"But nutritional science’s history is up for perpetual debate, for the simple reason that the findings are very rarely reproduced in randomized trials, says John Ioannidis, a professor of medicine, health research, and policy at Stanford University.
As a matter of facts, some people realized that such a planning agenda for world agriculture would be a tragic disruption.
https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.l1700
https://www.bmj.com/content/365/bmj.l1700/rapid-responses
https://newfoodeconomy.org/world-health-organization-drops-its-high-profile-endorsement-of-the-eat-lancet-diet/
https://italiarappginevra.esteri.it/rappginevra/en/ambasciata/news/dall-ambasciata/2019/03/comunicato-stampa-sul-lancio-del.html
https://italiarappginevra.esteri.it/rappginevra/en/ambasciata/news/dall-ambasciata/2019/03/evento-di-lancio-a-ginevra-del.html
https://newfoodeconomy.org/eat-lancet-meat-sustainability/
Proofs of dysnutrition in EAT LAncet
http://www.zoeharcombe.com/2019/01/the-eat-lancet-diet-is-nutritionally-deficient/
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-agriculture/2019/02/21/eat-lancet-kicks-off-in-washington-519409
The final point:
"But nutritional science’s history is up for perpetual debate, for the simple reason that the findings are very rarely reproduced in randomized trials, says John Ioannidis, a professor of medicine, health research, and policy at Stanford University.
“There are few exceptions, but the status of epidemiological literature is not at a level to allow us to make these types of very detailed, specific recommendations,” Ioannidis tells me. For that reason, the health claims in the EAT-Lancet diet are “science fiction. I can’t call it anything else.”"
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Ten years later it was obvious that the predictions of imminent death and disaster were wrong but Hansen et al NASA 1981 in "Climate Impact of Increasing Carbon Dioxide" resurrected many of the doomsday establishment scenarios :
"A sea level rise of 5 m would flood 25 percent of Louisiana and Florida,10 percent of New Jersey, and many other lowlands throughout the world. Climate models (7, 8) indicate that 2°C global warming is needed to cause 5°C warming at the West Antarctic ice sheet. A 2°C global warming is exceeded in the 21st century in all the CO2 scenarios we considered, except no growth and coal phaseout."
"The global warming projected for the next century is of almost unprecedented magnitude. On the basis of our model calculations, we estimate it to be 2.5°C for a scenario with slow energy growth and a mixture of nonfossil and fossil fuels. This would exceed the temperature during the altithermal (6000 years ago) and the previous (Eemian)interglacial period 125,000 years ago(53), and would approach the warmth of the Mesozoic, the age of dinosaurs"... Hansen said :"The trains carrying coal to power plants are death trains. Coal-fired power plants are factories of death."
…." if we burn all fossil fuels, we will destroy the planet we know. Carbon dioxide would increase to 500 ppm or more. We would set the planet on a course to the ice-free state, with sea level 75 metres higher."
http://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com/